SANTO DOMINGO, R.D. Julio 01, 2021.- Cambiar el modelo de pensiones de capitalización individual por uno de reparto, en el que el pago a los pensionados depende de los trabajadores actuales, implicaría aumentar la tasa de aportes mensual de 8.4% a 27.4% del salario cotizable para cubrir el déficit durante 40 años, según expuso el doctor Diego Valero en el seminario virtual “Financiar las pensiones en sistemas de reparto ¿Es viable en la República Dominicana?”.
El evento fue organizado por el Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC), el Observatorio de Seguridad Social del INTEC y la firma española de consultoría de pensiones Novaster, que realizó análisis de flujos, de equilibrio actuarial y de equilibrio financiero que determinaron que el sistema de reparto es inviable en la República Dominicana.
Valero explicó que si se volviera a un modelo de reparto con aporte actual de 8.4% del salario cotizable, nacería con un déficit inicial de RD$8 mil 563 millones, que iría creciendo exponencialmente por el componente demográfico que afecta a este sistema en la actualidad, pues cada vez los pensionados viven más y hay menores tasas de natalidad, y, por tanto, menos personas que trabajen para pagar las pensiones de los mayores.
El presidente de la firma Novaster afirmó que en caso de que no se aumentara la tasa de aportes para no sumar más cargas directas a la creación de empleos y a los mismos cotizantes, sería necesario subir el impuesto sobre la renta del 27% actual a 48% para cubrir el déficit hasta 2033.
El experto sostuvo que en los sistemas de reparto a nivel internacional existe un alto grado de dependencia política, no generan ahorro y pueden afectar al equilibrio presupuestario, pues su sostenibilidad se crea en base al equilibrio entre flujos de pagos e ingresos, y éste a su vez en el equilibrio generacional.
“Hemos hecho un análisis comparativo a largo plazo y lo que nos muestra es que el sistema que contempla la Ley 87-01 en igualdad de condiciones de un sistema de reparto y con el mismo aporte de 8.4%, tomando en cuenta la estructura poblacional dominicana, el sistema actual daría pensiones 2.3 veces mayores que un sistema de reparto” puntualizó Valero.
El seminario contó también con la participación del economista Henri Hebrard y el director de la carrera de Economía de INTEC, Richard Medina.
Por su lado, el economista Henri Hebrard sostuvo que la implementación de un sistema de reparto empeoraría la situación de las pensiones a los trabajadores, porque no ofrece una garantía para la sostenibilidad de la economía nacional.
Hebrard dijo que cambiar al sistema de reparto “no es una respuesta para la República Dominicana porque no ha sido la respuesta para ningún país. Es lo que estamos viendo de experiencia”.
Finalmente, el director de la carrera de Economía de INTEC, Richard Medina, sostuvo que para hablar de un sistema de reparto hay que analizar la presión tributaria del país, que está entre el 13% y el 15% anual, cuando los países que tienen estos sistemas con tasas de reemplazo superiores al 60% tienen presiones tributarias entre el 30% y el 35% del PIB.
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