La inflación acumulada para el periodo enero-mayo se ubicó en 3.36 %. Los grupos de mayor aporte al crecimiento del IPC fueron Transporte (1.48 %), Alimentos y Bebidas No Alcohólicas (0.76 %) y Bienes y Servicios Diversos (0.60 %).
Santo Domingo, República Dominicana. El Banco Central de la República Dominicana (BCRD) informa que la variación mensual del índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) fue de 0.65 % en mayo de 2021, colocando la inflación acumulada de los primeros cinco meses del año (enero-mayo) en 3.36 %.
El informe mensual del BCRD explica que la inflación subyacente de mayo se situó en 0.46 %. Este indicador aísla las variaciones de los precios de algunos bienes agropecuarios que tienden a ser volátiles, así como de las bebidas alcohólicas, el tabaco, los combustibles y los servicios administrados y de transporte, permitiendo de esta forma extraer señales más claras para la conducción de la política monetaria.
El BCRD puntualiza que la inflación en términos interanuales continúa reflejando un efecto estadístico con respecto a la base de comparación, ya que en el año 2020 en los meses de febrero (-0.13 %), marzo (-0.52 %), abril (-0.82 %) y mayo (-0.11 %) las variaciones del IPC fueron negativas, lo que implica que el indicador de inflación anualizada a mayo 2021 está influenciado por un sesgo transitorio al alza al hacer la comparación correspondiente. Se espera que este efecto comience a disiparse gradualmente a partir del presente mes de junio cuando la inflación iniciaría un proceso de convergencia hacia el rango meta establecido en el programa monetario de 4 % ± 1 % en el horizonte de política, conforme a los modelos del sistema de pronósticos del Banco Central.
En ese sentido, el reporte establece que la inflación interanual de la serie analítica asociada a la nueva base del IPC (octubre 2019- septiembre 2020) se ubicó en 9.97 % al cierre del mes de mayo de 2021. En cuanto a la variación de la serie empalmada oficial de los últimos doce meses, es decir, del período entre mayo 2020 y mayo 2021, la misma fue de 10.48 %. De igual forma, el BCRD prevé que la inflación anualizada experimente un punto de inflexión hacia la baja a partir del mes de junio hasta ubicarse en el rango meta establecido, tal como fue señalado por el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) en el comunicado de prensa al finalizar la Misión del Artículo IV en el presente año.
Variación por grupos
El BCRD señala que los grupos de mayor aporte al crecimiento del IPC de mayo de 2021 fueron Transporte (1.48 %), Alimentos y Bebidas No Alcohólicas (0.76 %), Bienes y Servicios Diversos (0.60 %), Restaurantes y Hoteles (0.57 %), además del grupo Muebles y Artículos para el Hogar (0.50 %).
Agrega que la variación de 0.76 % en el IPC del grupo Alimentos y Bebidas No Alcohólicas obedece en mayor medida a los incrementos de precios del arroz (2.10 %), aceite de soya (6.21 %), aguacates (15.46 %), pollo fresco (0.92 %), huevos (1.91 %), carne de res (0.17 %), ajíes (5.02 %), agua purificada (0.83 %) y naranjas (7.53 %), mientras que otros bienes alimenticios registraron disminuciones en los precios tales como: limones agrios (-18.37 %), plátanos verdes (-2.13 %), chinolas (-17.76 %), papas (-2.87 %) y ajo (-3.41 %).
En tanto que el IPC del grupo Transporte registró un aumento de 1.48 % en el mes de mayo, explicado principalmente por los aumentos de precios de las gasolinas regular (3.60 %), Premium (3.03 %) y el gasoil (1.93 %), según lo dispuesto por el Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Mipymes (MICM), en cumplimiento con la Ley 112-00 sobre hidrocarburos. Además, se verificaron alzas de precios en los boletos aéreos (5.29 %), en las tarifas de pasaje del transporte público en motoconcho (0.94 %), en carro (0.28 %) y en autobuses de empresas asociadas (0.70 %), así como en el servicio de reparación de vehículos (0.24 %), lubricantes (2.21 %), gomas (0.77 %) y baterías (0.93 %).
El reporte explica que el índice de precios del grupo Bienes y Servicios Diversos varió 0.60 % en mayo de 2021, principalmente por los aumentos de precios de los servicios de cuidado personal, como el lavado y peinado de pelo (0.83 %), el corte de pelo para hombre (0.31 %), jabón de baño (1.14 %) y los seguros de salud (3.15 %).
En cuanto al crecimiento de 0.57 % experimentado por el IPC del grupo Restaurantes y Hoteles, el mismo responde fundamentalmente a las alzas en los precios de los servicios de comidas preparadas fuera del hogar como plato del día (0.64 %), servicio de pollo (0.78 %) y servicio de víveres con acompañamiento (0.48 %). Mientras que el IPC del grupo Muebles y Artículos para el Hogar varió 0.50 % en mayo de 2021 respecto a abril.
Inflación de bienes transables y no transables
El BCRD establece en su informe que la variación de 0.91 % del IPC de los bienes transables, aquellos que pueden exportarse e importarse libres de restricciones, responde fundamentalmente a los aumentos en los precios de los combustibles, pasajes al exterior, pinturas, antihipertensivos, cerveza envasada y de algunos bienes alimenticios como aceite de soya, aguacates, huevos, carne de res, ajíes, agua purificada y naranjas.
En tanto que el índice de precios de los bienes y servicios no transables, los que por su naturaleza sólo pueden comercializarse dentro de la economía que los produce o están sujetos a medidas que limitan las importaciones de los mismos, creció 0.39 % en mayo 2021 debido principalmente a los aumentos de precios experimentados en el arroz, pollo fresco, así como a las alzas en algunas comidas preparadas fuera del hogar, los servicios de transporte terrestre, seguro de salud, entre otros.
Inflación por regiones geográficas
Al analizar el IPC por regiones geográficas se observa que la variación del índice de precios al consumidor de la región Ozama, que comprende el Distrito Nacional y la provincia Santo Domingo fue 0.53 %, en la región Norte 0.67 %, en la región Este fue de 0.75 % y en la región Sur de 0.90 %. El aumento más pronunciado en la región Sur se explica por la mayor incidencia del IPC del grupo Alimentos y Bebidas No Alcohólicas en esta área geográfica en el mes de mayo 2021.
Inflación por quintiles
El ente emisor estableció en su informe que los resultados del IPC por estratos socioeconómicos muestran que los índices de precios por quintiles de ingresos variaron 0.65 % el quintil 1, 0.68 % el quintil 2 y 0.62 % el quintil 3, explicado por los aumentos de precios de los alimentos, de los combustibles, de los servicios de transporte terrestre, servicios de cuidado personal y de comidas preparadas fuera del hogar. En tanto que los quintiles de mayores ingresos (4 y 5) registraron tasas de inflación de 0.61 % y 0.67 % respectivamente, debido principalmente al alza de precios de los combustibles y los pasajes aéreos dentro del grupo Transporte.
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